Dynasty QB Buy/Sell/Hold |
Published 8/12/2020 |
At its core, dynasty fantasy football is just like the stock market. Sometimes, an asset experiences unsustainable growth, and you have to let it go to get a premium return. Likewise, if a stock drops to a point where it can only go up, you have to buy low and wait for the sweet, sweet profit when it rebounds. When your assets are somewhere in between, all you can do is hold on and hope for the best. Let me introduce myself, my name is Drew, and I will be your stock advisor...
...by Drew Batteria
...by Drew Batteria
Fantasy managers are often compelled to get rid of underperforming players and cut their losses, but that approach leaves all the value on the table. Especially in dynasty, where you have more than enough time to wait for prospects to reach their potential, a buy-low and sell-high strategy is a must. As we approach the NFL season, I’ll be going through my top buys, holds, and sells to maximize the value of your roster, from top to bottom. Dynasty Superflex ADP values are courtesy of The Undroppables’ free online resource. I’ll also include sample trades for my Buys and Sells that are comparable to those I’ve seen in my own leagues, in which I’ll avoid using any of the other players addressed in this article. Let’s start with the most important position on the field, but one that is often overlooked in non-Superflex fantasy formats: the quarterback.
Buys: the guys that, in all likelihood, will never be cheaper than they are now. Get in while you still can.
Carson Wentz
Dynasty Superflex ADP: QB8
My Ranking: QB5
Injury concerns have their place, but Wentz is coming off a 16-game season with impressive numbers that still don’t truly reflect how well he played. Given the weapons he had to work with, his 4,000-yard, 27-TD, 7-INT season was remarkable. The wide receiver corps in Philly still isn’t anything to be excited about, but with the two-headed tight end monster eating up the middle and a plethora of deep threats, Wentz should bounce back to a top 10 finish with plenty of potential to land in the top 5.
Sample Trade: Aaron Rodgers and a 2021 2nd for Wentz
Daniel Jones
Dynasty Superflex ADP: QB10
My Ranking: QB8
Without a doubt, Jones was maddeningly inconsistent in 2019. At times he made ill-advised decisions, underthrew his receivers, and worst of all, held on to the ball far too long, leading to a mind-boggling 18 fumbles in 12 starts. Even with all of those problems, Jones finished 15th in fantasy points per game among QBs. With a dedicated offseason as the clear franchise QB, new OC Jason Garrett could help guide Jones towards the efficiency and production that he drew from Dak Prescott in Dallas (who, in my opinion, is a far less talented passer than Jones). The Giants’ investment in a franchise left tackle at 4th overall is very encouraging, as is the apparent health of all their young offensive weapons. And close study of his film shows Jones’ insane arm talent, as early as his rookie debut (just watch that first throw at 0:38). While his ADP is creeping up somewhat close to my valuation, I’d definitely still take him in the late 4th-to-early 5th round of a startup, or look into trading for Jones in established leagues.
Sample Trade: Russell Wilson and Austin Hooper for Daniel Jones, Evan Engram and Christian Kirk
Jimmy Garoppolo
Dynasty Superflex ADP: QB19
My Ranking: QB16
Just hear me out, okay? By no means is Jimmy G an elite quarterback. He might not even be top 20 in terms of talent alone. But we’ve seen throughout the years that it takes more than talent to produce in fantasy. It takes opportunity and a favorable situation, both of which Jimmy certainly has, and most likely will for years to come. Kyle Shanahan doesn’t ask Garoppolo to do too much, and as he enters his second full season in this proficient offense he should become increasingly comfortable making his reads and letting the game come to him. Jimmy excelled against poor defenses in 2019 even more than most quarterbacks do, and the 49ers’ schedule will allow him to do just that in 2020 (rated 10th most favorable QB schedule by FantasyPros). With Trent Williams replacing franchise legend Joe Staley and stability elsewhere, San Fran’s excellent offensive line shouldn’t miss a beat. I’m all over Jimmy G as my QB2 or QB3 in fantasy, and he could pair perfectly with rookie Tua Tagovailoa, as the 49ers’ schedule is especially frontloaded with easy matchups. Let Jimmy be your superflex until Tua is ready, and watch the wins roll.
Sample Trade: Baker Mayfield for Garoppolo and a 2021 late 1st
Holds: the guys that aren’t quite popular enough to justify selling, not quite underrated enough to trade for, but are definitely set for an increase in value and could be huge contributors to your team.
Jared Goff
Dynasty Superflex ADP: QB17
My Ranking: QB13
With all the discourse around his teammates, Goff’s value has become somewhat ignored among the fantasy community. Everyone seems to have a take on Tyler Higbee versus Gerald Everett and Robert Woods versus Cooper Kupp, which leads me to an obvious conclusion: no matter which side wins in those debates, Goff will be throwing elite production to someone, and has an arsenal of exciting weapons at his disposal. Rookies Cam Akers and Van Jefferson should bring a new level of explosiveness to LA’s offense as well. As one of the safer and more consistent picks outside the top tier of quarterbacks, Goff will make as an excellent addition to your superflex QB group, and I love him as an upside QB2 in single-QB formats as well.
Drew Lock
Dynasty Superflex ADP: QB20
My Ranking: QB18
To be honest, I’m not completely sold on Lock. In an incredibly limited sample size of 5 starts, he showed some promise as a young prospect; his poise under pressure, mobility, and deep-ball placement are all NFL-ready. His technique still needs work, especially in terms of moving around the pocket, which will enable him to throw in rhythm rather than hurrying to get the ball out of his hands. But the level of talent around him, and the youth of that talent, is tantalizing. Even if he continues to struggle with accuracy and timing, Lock has the support system in place to have huge games through the air. I have a few shares in dynasty leagues and I’m not even entertaining offers for them.
Gardner Minshew
Dynasty Superflex ADP: QB25
My Ranking: QB23
How could I not spread some love for the ‘stache? Even if Tanking for Trevor is a full go in Duval Nation, Minshew will be throwing the ball a ton. The Jags are likely to be trailing early and often; plus, Minshew will be airing it out to show other teams that he deserves a starting job. He has the arm strength to make big plays, as well as a stud WR1 to convert them on the other end. Hold onto Minshew if you have him; if you’re in contention, he’s sure to help as a matchup play, and if you’re not, you should be able to get a bigger haul from a contender at the trade deadline than you will now.
Sells: the guys that you can trade now, while they’re at peak value.
Deshaun Watson
Dynasty Superflex ADP: QB5
My Ranking: QB7
Trust me, I don’t like this any more than you do. The reality is, the Texans’ organizational incompetence may seriously impact Watson’s fantasy impact going forward. Trading DeAndre Hopkins for the ghost of David Johnson and a second-round defensive tackle won’t help, but the team has also failed to protect Watson adequately. The long-term signing of Laremy Tunsil is only the first step of what needs to become a complete overhaul in the trenches. As is standard for quarterbacks, Watson’s rushing upside will diminish when he starts to age, so the Texans need to equip him with difference-making weapons in the absence of an elite offensive line. It’s possible that free agent Brandin Cooks and fifth-year veteran Will Fuller can be those weapons, but only if they stay healthy, a rare occurrence in both of their careers. Obviously, I’m not completely out on Watson, but I do project enough of a decline in his performance that I think selling him now is the optimal strategy.
Sample Trade: Watson for Joe Burrow and Jerry Jeudy
Josh Allen
Dynasty Superflex ADP: QB7
My Ranking: QB12
I absolutely understand and appreciate the love for Allen’s game. He plays hard for his team, throws bombs, and is an unappetizing matchup for the opposing DBs trying to tackle him. But at the end of the day, even in a run-heavy offense, 3,000 yards on a 58% completion rate isn’t going to cut it. Like Watson and many before him, Father Time will undoubtedly catch up with Allen if he keeps running into contact and taking sacks. Cam Newton seemed invincible during his MVP campaign, but even he quickly deteriorated and faced injury after injury. Once Allen is forced to start running less and throwing more, I think it’s a legitimate question to ask whether he’s a NFL-caliber quarterback. His passing numbers weren’t any better at Wyoming than they have been in Buffalo. And with two exciting young running backs behind him, who knows if the Bills will even ask Allen to run as much going forward? He may continue to put up top-10 production with the excellent rushing floor he has ensured in his first two NFL seasons. But it’s only a matter of time before he can’t anymore.
Sample Trade: Allen for a 2021 1st and 2nd
Sam Darnold
Dynasty Superflex ADP: QB23
My Ranking: QB28
As a Jets fan, this one hurts to write. Even with his rich-kid background, the kid is incredibly easy to root for. But the fact remains that Darnold has shown little to prove that he can become a top-tier NFL quarterback. Even in his highlight tape you can see some of the problems that have led to Darnold’s inefficiency and inconsistency. His approach to playing the position essentially alternates between two undesirable extremes; he either goes into pocket-passer mode and fails to maneuver around the pocket, leading to sacks, fumbles, and unbalanced throwing motions, or he gets happy feet and loses his protection. His broken-play ability is exciting, but great quarterbacks are built on progressing through reads and adjusting protection, skills that Darnold is yet to display on a regular basis. Blame Adam Gase or the Jets’ offensive talent all you want; for the 2020 season, those problems still exist, and if it goes poorly, both Gase and Darnold may not get another chance to prove themselves.
Sample Trade: Darnold for Justin Herbert
If you’ve read this far, I truly appreciate it. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @DBatteryFF and let me know what you think!
Buys: the guys that, in all likelihood, will never be cheaper than they are now. Get in while you still can.
Carson Wentz
Dynasty Superflex ADP: QB8
My Ranking: QB5
Injury concerns have their place, but Wentz is coming off a 16-game season with impressive numbers that still don’t truly reflect how well he played. Given the weapons he had to work with, his 4,000-yard, 27-TD, 7-INT season was remarkable. The wide receiver corps in Philly still isn’t anything to be excited about, but with the two-headed tight end monster eating up the middle and a plethora of deep threats, Wentz should bounce back to a top 10 finish with plenty of potential to land in the top 5.
Sample Trade: Aaron Rodgers and a 2021 2nd for Wentz
Daniel Jones
Dynasty Superflex ADP: QB10
My Ranking: QB8
Without a doubt, Jones was maddeningly inconsistent in 2019. At times he made ill-advised decisions, underthrew his receivers, and worst of all, held on to the ball far too long, leading to a mind-boggling 18 fumbles in 12 starts. Even with all of those problems, Jones finished 15th in fantasy points per game among QBs. With a dedicated offseason as the clear franchise QB, new OC Jason Garrett could help guide Jones towards the efficiency and production that he drew from Dak Prescott in Dallas (who, in my opinion, is a far less talented passer than Jones). The Giants’ investment in a franchise left tackle at 4th overall is very encouraging, as is the apparent health of all their young offensive weapons. And close study of his film shows Jones’ insane arm talent, as early as his rookie debut (just watch that first throw at 0:38). While his ADP is creeping up somewhat close to my valuation, I’d definitely still take him in the late 4th-to-early 5th round of a startup, or look into trading for Jones in established leagues.
Sample Trade: Russell Wilson and Austin Hooper for Daniel Jones, Evan Engram and Christian Kirk
Jimmy Garoppolo
Dynasty Superflex ADP: QB19
My Ranking: QB16
Just hear me out, okay? By no means is Jimmy G an elite quarterback. He might not even be top 20 in terms of talent alone. But we’ve seen throughout the years that it takes more than talent to produce in fantasy. It takes opportunity and a favorable situation, both of which Jimmy certainly has, and most likely will for years to come. Kyle Shanahan doesn’t ask Garoppolo to do too much, and as he enters his second full season in this proficient offense he should become increasingly comfortable making his reads and letting the game come to him. Jimmy excelled against poor defenses in 2019 even more than most quarterbacks do, and the 49ers’ schedule will allow him to do just that in 2020 (rated 10th most favorable QB schedule by FantasyPros). With Trent Williams replacing franchise legend Joe Staley and stability elsewhere, San Fran’s excellent offensive line shouldn’t miss a beat. I’m all over Jimmy G as my QB2 or QB3 in fantasy, and he could pair perfectly with rookie Tua Tagovailoa, as the 49ers’ schedule is especially frontloaded with easy matchups. Let Jimmy be your superflex until Tua is ready, and watch the wins roll.
Sample Trade: Baker Mayfield for Garoppolo and a 2021 late 1st
Holds: the guys that aren’t quite popular enough to justify selling, not quite underrated enough to trade for, but are definitely set for an increase in value and could be huge contributors to your team.
Jared Goff
Dynasty Superflex ADP: QB17
My Ranking: QB13
With all the discourse around his teammates, Goff’s value has become somewhat ignored among the fantasy community. Everyone seems to have a take on Tyler Higbee versus Gerald Everett and Robert Woods versus Cooper Kupp, which leads me to an obvious conclusion: no matter which side wins in those debates, Goff will be throwing elite production to someone, and has an arsenal of exciting weapons at his disposal. Rookies Cam Akers and Van Jefferson should bring a new level of explosiveness to LA’s offense as well. As one of the safer and more consistent picks outside the top tier of quarterbacks, Goff will make as an excellent addition to your superflex QB group, and I love him as an upside QB2 in single-QB formats as well.
Drew Lock
Dynasty Superflex ADP: QB20
My Ranking: QB18
To be honest, I’m not completely sold on Lock. In an incredibly limited sample size of 5 starts, he showed some promise as a young prospect; his poise under pressure, mobility, and deep-ball placement are all NFL-ready. His technique still needs work, especially in terms of moving around the pocket, which will enable him to throw in rhythm rather than hurrying to get the ball out of his hands. But the level of talent around him, and the youth of that talent, is tantalizing. Even if he continues to struggle with accuracy and timing, Lock has the support system in place to have huge games through the air. I have a few shares in dynasty leagues and I’m not even entertaining offers for them.
Gardner Minshew
Dynasty Superflex ADP: QB25
My Ranking: QB23
How could I not spread some love for the ‘stache? Even if Tanking for Trevor is a full go in Duval Nation, Minshew will be throwing the ball a ton. The Jags are likely to be trailing early and often; plus, Minshew will be airing it out to show other teams that he deserves a starting job. He has the arm strength to make big plays, as well as a stud WR1 to convert them on the other end. Hold onto Minshew if you have him; if you’re in contention, he’s sure to help as a matchup play, and if you’re not, you should be able to get a bigger haul from a contender at the trade deadline than you will now.
Sells: the guys that you can trade now, while they’re at peak value.
Deshaun Watson
Dynasty Superflex ADP: QB5
My Ranking: QB7
Trust me, I don’t like this any more than you do. The reality is, the Texans’ organizational incompetence may seriously impact Watson’s fantasy impact going forward. Trading DeAndre Hopkins for the ghost of David Johnson and a second-round defensive tackle won’t help, but the team has also failed to protect Watson adequately. The long-term signing of Laremy Tunsil is only the first step of what needs to become a complete overhaul in the trenches. As is standard for quarterbacks, Watson’s rushing upside will diminish when he starts to age, so the Texans need to equip him with difference-making weapons in the absence of an elite offensive line. It’s possible that free agent Brandin Cooks and fifth-year veteran Will Fuller can be those weapons, but only if they stay healthy, a rare occurrence in both of their careers. Obviously, I’m not completely out on Watson, but I do project enough of a decline in his performance that I think selling him now is the optimal strategy.
Sample Trade: Watson for Joe Burrow and Jerry Jeudy
Josh Allen
Dynasty Superflex ADP: QB7
My Ranking: QB12
I absolutely understand and appreciate the love for Allen’s game. He plays hard for his team, throws bombs, and is an unappetizing matchup for the opposing DBs trying to tackle him. But at the end of the day, even in a run-heavy offense, 3,000 yards on a 58% completion rate isn’t going to cut it. Like Watson and many before him, Father Time will undoubtedly catch up with Allen if he keeps running into contact and taking sacks. Cam Newton seemed invincible during his MVP campaign, but even he quickly deteriorated and faced injury after injury. Once Allen is forced to start running less and throwing more, I think it’s a legitimate question to ask whether he’s a NFL-caliber quarterback. His passing numbers weren’t any better at Wyoming than they have been in Buffalo. And with two exciting young running backs behind him, who knows if the Bills will even ask Allen to run as much going forward? He may continue to put up top-10 production with the excellent rushing floor he has ensured in his first two NFL seasons. But it’s only a matter of time before he can’t anymore.
Sample Trade: Allen for a 2021 1st and 2nd
Sam Darnold
Dynasty Superflex ADP: QB23
My Ranking: QB28
As a Jets fan, this one hurts to write. Even with his rich-kid background, the kid is incredibly easy to root for. But the fact remains that Darnold has shown little to prove that he can become a top-tier NFL quarterback. Even in his highlight tape you can see some of the problems that have led to Darnold’s inefficiency and inconsistency. His approach to playing the position essentially alternates between two undesirable extremes; he either goes into pocket-passer mode and fails to maneuver around the pocket, leading to sacks, fumbles, and unbalanced throwing motions, or he gets happy feet and loses his protection. His broken-play ability is exciting, but great quarterbacks are built on progressing through reads and adjusting protection, skills that Darnold is yet to display on a regular basis. Blame Adam Gase or the Jets’ offensive talent all you want; for the 2020 season, those problems still exist, and if it goes poorly, both Gase and Darnold may not get another chance to prove themselves.
Sample Trade: Darnold for Justin Herbert
If you’ve read this far, I truly appreciate it. Feel free to reach out on Twitter @DBatteryFF and let me know what you think!